AUG 2026: Compass National Real Estate Insights

Monthly Economic Summary — August 2026

Mortgage rates spent August at the year's highs, and demand has slowed a bit as a result. We're seeing slightly fewer sales contracts each week, along with lower mortgage applications and credit checks. (View data for these three high-frequency indicators here.)

The Optimistic Case for Rates

A month ago, markets priced roughly a 37% chance the Fed would raise short-term rates at its July meeting. That's now off the table. Heading into the September 16 meeting, futures indicate the odds of a hike essentially at zero. 

Interest rates haven't caught up yet. The 10-year Treasury barely moved all month. The 30-year mortgage rate peaked at 6.85% on July 23 (a one-year high) before easing to 6.74%. The spread between mortgage rates and Treasuries is narrowing slightly; it normally runs closer to 1.7 points. If that spread keeps closing, mortgage rates could drift into the low 6s even without any Fed action.

Jobs Still Aren't Cooperating

The labor improvement we'd hoped for hasn't materialized. July payrolls lost 23,000 jobs. Unemployment fell to 4.1%, but only because the labor force shrank not because hiring picked up. The number that matters most for us is the hiring rate, which is still stuck at 3.4%. When

companies aren't hiring, fewer people relocate for work, and that’s a limiter for home sales.

Wealth Effects Are Still Working in Our Favor

Beyond rates and jobs, wealth is a third driver of housing demand. The S&P 500 is up 19% over the past year, and business profitability remains high. These wealth effects show up as demand in certain markets, especially luxury-oriented ones.

Homeowners Remain in Strong Financial Shape

New consumer credit data from the New York Fed, also in the slides, illustrates just how strong a position American homeowners are in: very few mortgages in any stage of delinquency, very few foreclosures, and substantial headroom left on HELOCs. Bottom line: don't count on

distressed inventory adding to supply anytime soon.

Here's Where it Gets Interesting Again, Though.

Despite the hesitation, national home prices are still up year-over-year, and New York is one of the metros holding a positive price trend even as several other cities have flipped negative. Inventory nationally is essentially flat versus last year, meaning the shortage that's defined this market for years hasn't gone anywhere — buyers aren't getting more competition to choose from, and sellers aren't facing a sudden glut. Even builders, the group closest to the ground, are meaningfully more optimistic about the next six months than they are about right now.

So where does that leave you? If you're selling, especially at the higher end, the fundamentals are genuinely on your side: low inventory, resilient pricing, and a buyer pool with real capital behind it. If you're buying, patience is paying off — rates likely have more room to fall than rise from here, and there's no rush created by runaway competition. Either way, this is a market that rewards a clear strategy over a reactive one, and that's exactly what our team is here to build with you.

Want to talk through what this means for your specific neighborhood, home, or timeline? Reach out — that's the conversation worth having before your next move.

— The Halupka Team

Call: 908.247.2945

Email: jrh@compass.com

Stop by: 212 Court street, Brooklyn, NY

View full report here: August 2026 | National Insights Report